[#AltDevBlogADay] Aspiring developer Kyle Kulyk asks; if Nintendo doesn't repeat its success, what will that mean for the industry?
[This article has been republished from Keith Fuller's latest post found over at #AltDevBlogADay]
As the saying goes, where there’s smoke, there’s fire and lately there seems a lot of smoke centered over Nintendo, with good reason.
Recently, Nintendo revised their annual forecast, predicting profits to plunge to 27 year lows on the news of losses related to the 3DS, waning Wii sales and foreign exchange concerns.
It’s difficult to discuss Nintendo’s future without having die-hard fans descend on you like a pack of furious monkeys, but I feel the games industry and gamers alike should be concerned about what this could mean for the iconic company and the impact on the industry.
There’s no denying that the Wii was a runaway hit, however with Wii sales beginning to fade Nintendo has readied its replacement in the Wii-U. The Wii-U looks to match other current gen consoles graphically, but it will use both Wii controllers and a giant, expensive looking iPad like controller.
Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but does anyone else see this as an issue? Growing up with three other siblings, I can only imagine the chaos in presenting us with the choice of one giant, special controller with everyone else receiving regular controllers.
I’m all for teaching children the value of sharing, but let’s be realistic here. Analysts have also expressed their concerns and investors began to dump Nintendo shares en masse after the Wii-U’s reveal. Does the Wii-U even have a shot at the Wii’s level of success, or will it be passed up as being nothing more than the Wii HD with an ipad attachment?
And what if the Wii-U doesn’t match the Wii’s success? Nintendo has faced struggles with home consoles before and pulled through. Many considered the Gamecube a blunder with complaints of it being too “toy-ish” and for not offering the technical advantages available from their competition, but Nintendo pulled through. What’s different this time?
I think the main difference this time, and the real reason we need be concerned for one of the industry giants is due to changes in the portable gaming market. Portable games have been Nintendo’s bread and butter for some time.
Even back when the GameCube was attempting to wrestle out a corner of the market, Nintendo leaned on excellent sales from their GameBoy and GameBoy Advance platforms, both for hardware and software sales. The GameBoy Advance didn’t even begin to decline until its replacement, the Nintendo DS , became available and the DS picked up the Nintendo revenue torch and ran with it despite what many considered a lacklustre launch.
Unlike the GameBoy Advance, however, the DS has begun its sales descent well ahead of the launch of the 3DS, which is a large part of why Nintendo found themselves forced to slash their forecasts. The DS’s sales decline coincidentally (or not) coincided with a surge in another device. The Apple iPhone.
That’s why as a long-term industry watcher I think Nintendo is in trouble. The DS’s replacement, the 3DS, has already received a massive price drop to spur sales while agencies like Reuters are describing the device as a “flop” amidst complaints of a lacklustre software line-up and confusion regarding the safety of 3D displays and children’s eye development.
Industry analysts are already predicting far fewer 3DS units sold compared to the DS’s accomplishments, so where does that leave Nintendo? If the 3DS is unable to find a foothold in a new market where casual gamers can find their gaming fix via their cell phones and if Nintendo is hit with a double whammy if the Wii-U fails to capture consumers – where does that leave Nintendo?
It was heresy in the past to even suggest that Sega might be forced to withdraw from the console market, but we all know what happened there. Could we see Nintendo become a software only company with Mario and Link making appearances on Sony’s Playstation?
Might a partnership with another company to create a unified console take some of the burden off Nintendo when it comes to the enormous costs associated with new hardware development?
Might we see Nintendo apply their portable gaming expertise to the Android and iPhone markets or will Nintendo merely weather this storm? No matter what happens, my gut tells me we may witness a shift within the games industry sooner rather than later.
Yep, we should. Nintendo should stop making consoles. They simply can't keep up with Sony and Microsoft anymore.
Their online is simply a disaster, I bought something from the virtual console the other day and my game failed to download and was suddenly deleted. It was not tied to an account of any type because Nintendo doesn't want to force you to make an account.
I'm sorry, Nintendo, but accounts are simply the way to go. Just because you want to be different doesn't mean 10 number random codes for each specific game are a good reason.
No, Of the big three Nintendo's the one whos entire company is dedicated to gaming if the gaming world was to rely on Microsoft and Sony who are only in it for dollar signs then the gaming world will turn crap
"My gut tells me we may witness a shift within the games industry sooner rather than later..."
It’s not your gut my friend, the evidence is everywhere. Hence, we are currently in a paradigm shift and it’s up to companies like Nintendo to be innovative and creative in response. Otherwise even the once ‘biggest fish in the pond' will be caught out by firms being formed, diversifying and or taking lead, in what is an evident battle for supremacy, during the contemporary evolution of the market.
Whilst I still hold dear the future of the console and the AAA, companies would be foolish to dismiss the potential of cloud and or free-to-play, mobile and social markets.
Key is getting gamers hooked on a product and building e.g. be that via ‘buy ins’ and or extras, as shown within Natural Motions recently released New Horse title (not a game that interest me personally but a fantastic and has to be praised business model), or potentially hooking gamers on a social title and building up to a AAA.
Crucial in this world of current pessimism, more people today are playing games than ever and are doing so in a multitude of diverse formats. So positivity and belief around the future of the industry must remain high, key is evolution my friend and as Darwin puts it, in survival of the fittest...“only the fittest will survive.”
Pete Bell
No way. The 3DS has been the best selling system worldwide, handheld or otherwise for over a month now. They currently sit only 500k units behind where the DS was at this point in it's lifespan and we haven't even seen a holiday season yet. Seems that everyone laps it up when Nintendo do badly but fail to pay any attention when they right the ship again. It's frustrating how many gaming journalists are still saying that the 3DS is a flop when a quick look at the numbers tells a different story.
Not at all. People are basing Nintendos future on the short comings of the wii and the less than grand release of the 3DS. Instead, look to the future, alot of extremely popular exclusive 3DS games. Not to mention the WiiU, releasing less than a year from now, is more than the author of this article leads on. Developers are saying 50% more power that 360/ps3 and giving it their full support. THQ says buying wiiU games over 360/psw games will be like buy blueray over dvd.
source- http://www.fedwars.net/wrestling_article.php?article_id=6
3DS is the best selling hardware in the world for 3 months straight.
Remember the Original DS and DS Lite? The Original DS didn't do all that well but as soon as the DS Lite came out, BOOM, sales were on like Donkey Kong :P
The Wii U is to be 50% more powerful than the PS3; that'd been cool if it was released in 2009 or something; but I think the PS4 will be 3 times (200%) more powerful than the PS3, and the Xbox 720 will be 3 times more powerful than the Xbox 360; and the 720 is going to be unveiled in E3 2012 and possible be released in November 2012, the same year as the Wii U! (if not, then November 2013); the Wii U though will still likely be the cheapest of the next gen 3, but Nintendo should create a brand new exclusive new series of video games, (like the PS3 spawned Uncharted, Resistance and Infamous) than the same old Metroid, Mario, Zelda etc;
I have one question... who actually is excited about the Wii U? Do you know anyone who wants one? Why would you purchase a machine with outdated graphics and a huge, expensive touch screen?
I have been a diehard Nintendo fanboy for years and years, but I can't stay with them anymore. I recently bought a PS3 and will probably be content with that for a while. Nintendo has really lost the torch this time: nearly no support for the Wii this Christmas save one big title (Zelda); screwing over fans and not releasing Japanese titles here; and making us wait for an expensive and sub-par machine. I hate touch gaming, and most serious gamers do too. If the Wii followed a "Blue Ocean" strategy (i.e. sell as much cheap shovelware as possible) then the ocean has now been explored. Mobile devices are going to kill them.
I don't know if it's possible but they need something very different than the Wii U. I'm no analyst, but I call a major failure on that if the current rumors (old graphics, one controller per machine) hold true. And now I'm off to play God of War...
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